Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: Comparison of Estimates Obtained Using Different Methods in Twenty Sites and Development of a National-Level Estimate.

BACKGROUND: National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates. SETTING: Zimbabwe. METHODS: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and program records, we calculated PSEs for each of the 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to 3 methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49-year-old women, generated a list of all "hotspot" sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots. RESULTS: Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors). CONCLUSION: There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

Patient and health-care worker experiences of an HIV viral load intervention using SMS: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Mobile Health or mHealth interventions, including Short Message Service (SMS), can help increase access to care, enhance the efficiency of health service delivery and improve diagnosis and treatment for HIV. Text messaging, or SMS, allows for the low cost transmission of information, and has been used to send appointment reminders, information about HIV counselling and treatment, messages to encourage adherence and information on nutrition and side-effects. HIV Viral Load (VL) monitoring is recommended by the WHO and has been progressively adopted in many settings. In Zimbabwe, implementation of VL is routine and has been rolled out with support of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) since 2012. An SMS intervention to assist with the management of VL results was introduced in two rural districts of Zimbabwe. After completion of the HIV VL testing at the National Microbiology Reference Laboratory in Harare, results were sent to health facilities via SMS. Consenting patients were also sent an SMS informing them that their viral load results were ready for collection at their nearest health facilities. No actual VL results were sent to patients. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted in seven health-care facilities using in-depth interviews (n = 32) and focus group discussions (n = 5) to explore patient and health-care worker experiences of the SMS intervention. Purposive sampling was used to select participants to ensure that male and female patients, as well as those with differing VL results and who lived differing distances from the clinics were included. Data were transcribed, translated from Shona into English, coded and thematically analysed using NVivo software. RESULTS: The VL SMS intervention was considered acceptable to patients and health-care workers despite some challenges in implementation. The intervention was perceived by health-care workers as improving adherence and well-being of patients as well as improving the management of VL results at health facilities. However, there were some concerns from participants about the intervention, including challenges in understanding the purpose and language of the messages and patients coming to their health facility unnecessarily. Health-care workers were more concerned than patients about unintentional HIV disclosure relating to the content of the messages or phone-sharing. CONCLUSION: This was an innovative intervention in Zimbabwe, in which SMS was used to send VL results to health-care facilities, and notifications of the availability of VL results to patients. Interventions such as this have the potential to reduce unnecessary clinic visits and ensure patients with high VL results receive timely support, but they need to be properly explained, alongside routine counselling, for patients to fully benefit. The findings of this study also have potential policy implications, as if implemented well, such an SMS intervention has the potential to help patients adopt a more active role in the self-management of their HIV disease, become more aware of the importance of adherence and VL monitoring and seek follow-up at clinics when results are high.

Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In several recent papers it has been suggested that HIV prevalence and incidence are declining in Zimbabwe as a result of changing sexual behavior. We provide further support for these suggestions, based on an analysis of more extensive, age-stratified, HIV prevalence data from 1990 to 2009 for perinatal women in Harare, as well as data on incidence and mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Pooled prevalence, incidence and mortality were fitted using a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model of HIV transmission; age-stratified prevalence data were fitted using double-logistic functions. We estimate that incidence peaked at 5.5% per year in 1991 declining to 1% per year in 2010. Prevalence peaked in 1998/9 [35.9% (CI95: 31.3-40.7)] and decreased by 67% to 11.9% (CI95: 10.1-13.8) in 2009. For women <20y, 20-24y, 25-29y, 30-34y and ≥35y, prevalence peaked at 25.4%, 34.2%, 47.1%, 44.0% and 33.5% in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999, respectively, declining thereafter in every age group. Among women <25y, prevalence peaked in 1994 at 28.8% declining thereafter by 69% to 8.9% (CI95: 6.8-11.5) in 2009. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: HIV prevalence declined substantially among perinatal women in Harare after 1998 consequent upon a decline in incidence starting in the early 1990s. Our model suggests that this was primarily a result of changes in behavior which we attribute to a general increase in awareness of the dangers of AIDS and the ever more apparent increases in mortality.

Mother to child transmission of HIV among Zimbabwean women who seroconverted postnatally: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the rates and timing of mother to infant transmission of HIV associated with breast feeding in mothers who seroconvert postnatally, and their breast milk and plasma HIV loads during and following seroconversion, compared with women who tested HIV positive at delivery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Urban Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS: 14 110 women and infants enrolled in the Zimbabwe Vitamin A for Mothers and Babies (ZVITAMBO) trial (1997-2001). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mother to child transmission of HIV, and breast milk and maternal plasma HIV load during the postpartum period. RESULTS: Among mothers who tested HIV positive at baseline and whose infant tested HIV negative with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) at six weeks (n=2870), breastfeeding associated transmission was responsible for an average of 8.96 infant infections per 100 child years of breast feeding (95% CI 7.92 to 10.14) and varied little over the breastfeeding period. Breastfeeding associated transmission for mothers who seroconverted postnatally (n=334) averaged 34.56 infant infections per 100 child years (95% CI 26.60 to 44.91) during the first nine months after maternal infection, declined to 9.50 (95% CI 3.07 to 29.47) during the next three months, and was zero thereafter. Among women who seroconverted postnatally and in whom the precise timing of infection was known (≤90 days between last negative and first positive test; n=51), 62% (8/13) of transmissions occurred in the first three months after maternal infection and breastfeeding associated transmission was 4.6 times higher than in mothers who tested HIV positive at baseline and whose infant tested HIV negative with PCR at six weeks. Median plasma HIV concentration in all mothers who seroconverted postnatally declined from 5.0 log(10) copies/mL at the last negative enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to 4.1 log(10) copies/mL at 9-12 months after infection. Breast milk HIV load in this group was 4.3 log(10) copies/mL 0-30 days after infection, but rapidly declined to 2.0 log(10) copies/mL and <1.5 log(10) copies/mL by 31-90 days and more than 90 days, respectively. Among women whose plasma sample collected soon after delivery tested negative for HIV with ELISA but positive with PCR (n=17), 75% of their infants were infected or had died by 12 months. An estimated 18.6% to 20.4% of all breastfeeding associated transmission observed in the ZVITAMBO trial occurred among mothers who seroconverted postnatally. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding associated transmission is high during primary maternal HIV infection and is mirrored by a high but transient peak in breast milk HIV load. Around two thirds of breastfeeding associated transmission by women who seroconvert postnatally may occur while the mother is still in the "window period" of an antibody based test, when she would test HIV negative using one of these tests. Trial registration Clinical trials.gov NCT00198718.

Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the BED capture enzyme immunoassay for HIV-1 subtype C and to derive adjustments facilitating estimation of HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional surveys. DESIGN: Laboratory analysis of archived plasma samples collected in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Serial plasma samples from 85 women who seroconverted to HIV-1 during the postpartum year were assayed by BED and used to estimate the window period between seroconversion and the attainment of a specified BED absorbance. HIV-1 incidences for the year prior to recruitment and for the postpartum year were calculated by applying the BED technique to HIV-1-positive samples collected at baseline and at 12 months. RESULTS: The mean window for an absorbance cut-off of 0.8 was 187 days. Among women who were HIV-1 positive at baseline and retested at 12 months, a proportion (epsilon) 5.2% (142/2749) had a BED absorbance < 0.8 at 12 months and were falsely identified as recent seroconverters. Consequently, the estimated BED annual incidence at 12 months postpartum (7.6%) was 2.2 times the contemporary prospective estimate. BED incidence adjusted for epsilon was 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-4.5], close to the 3.4% estimated prospectively. Adjusted BED incidence at baseline was 6.0% (95% CI, 5.2-6.9) and, like the prospective estimates, declined with maternal age. Unadjusted BED incidence estimates were largely independent of age; the pooled estimate was 58% higher than adjusted incidence. CONCLUSION: The BED method can be used in an African setting, but further estimates of epsilon and of the window period are required, using large samples in a variety of circumstances, before its general utility can be gauged.

Mortality and morbidity among postpartum HIV-positive and HIV-negative women in Zimbabwe: risk factors, causes, and impact of single-dose postpartum vitamin A supplementation.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A deficiency is common among women in resource-poor countries and is associated with greater mortality during HIV. METHODS: Fourteen thousand one hundred ten mothers were tested for HIV and randomly administered 400,000 IU vitamin A or placebo at less than 96 hours postpartum. The effects of vitamin A and HIV status on mortality, health care utilization, and serum retinol were evaluated. RESULTS: Four thousand four hundred ninety-five (31.9%) mothers tested HIV positive. Mortality at 24 months was 2.3 per 1000 person-years and 38.3 per 1000 person-years in HIV-negative and HIV-positive women, respectively. Vitamin A had no effect on mortality. Tuberculosis was the most common cause of death, and nearly all tuberculosis-associated deaths were among HIV-positive women. Among HIV-positive women, vitamin A had no effect on rates of hospitalization or overall sick clinic visits, but did reduce clinic visits for malaria, cracked and bleeding nipples, pelvic inflammatory disease, and vaginal infection. Among HIV-negative women, serum retinol was responsive to vitamin A, but low serum retinol was rare. Among HIV-positive women, serum retinol was largely unresponsive to vitamin A, and regardless of treatment group, the entire serum retinol distribution was shifted 25% less than that of HIV-negative women 6 weeks after dosing. CONCLUSIONS: Single-dose postpartum vitamin A supplementation had no effect on maternal mortality, perhaps because vitamin A status was adequate in HIV-negative women and apparently unresponsive to supplementation in HIV-positive women.

HIV incidence among post-partum women in Zimbabwe: risk factors and the effect of vitamin A supplementation.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether post-partum vitamin A supplementation can reduce incident HIV among post-partum women and identify risk factors for HIV incidence. DESIGN: Randomized, placebo-controlled trial METHODS: Between November 1997 and January 2001, 14,110 women were randomly administered 400,000 IU vitamin A or placebo within 96 h post-partum. HIV incidence was monitored among 9562 HIV-negative women. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence was 3.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.0-3.8] and 6.5% (95% CI, 5.7-7.4) over 12 and 24 months post-partum, respectively. Vitamin A supplementation had no impact on incidence [hazard ratio (HR), 1.08; 95% CI, 0.85-1.38]. However, among 398 women for whom baseline serum retinol was measured, those with levels indicative of deficiency (< 0.7 micromol/l, 9.2% of those measured) were 10.4 (95% CI, 3.0-36.3) times more likely to seroconvert than women with higher concentrations. Furthermore, among women with low serum retinol, vitamin A supplementation tended to be protective against incidence (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.03-2.60; P = 0.26), although not significantly so, perhaps due to limited statistical power. Severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 70 g/l) was associated with a 2.7-fold (95%CI, 1.2-6.1) greater incidence. Younger women were at higher risk of HIV infection: incidence declined by 5.7% (2.8-8.6) with each additional year of age. CONCLUSION: Among post-partum women, a single large-dose vitamin A supplementation had no effect on incidence, although low serum retinol was a risk factor for seroconversion. Further investigation is required to determine whether vitamin A supplementation of vitamin-A-deficient women or treatment of anaemic women can reduce HIV incidence.

Effects of a single large dose of vitamin A, given during the postpartum period to HIV-positive women and their infants, on child HIV infection, HIV-free survival, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Low maternal serum retinol level is a risk factor for mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Multiple-large-dose vitamin A supplementation of HIV-positive children reduces mortality. The World Health Organization recommends single-large-dose vitamin A supplementation for postpartum women in areas of prevalent vitamin A deficiency; neonatal dosing is under consideration. We investigated the effect that single-large-dose maternal/neonatal vitamin A supplementation has on MTCT, HIV-free survival, and mortality in HIV-exposed infants. METHODS: A total of 14,110 mother-infant pairs were enrolled < or =96 h after delivery, and both mother and infant, mother only, infant only, or neither received vitamin A supplementation in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial with a 2 x 2 factorial design. All but 4 mothers initiated breast-feeding. A total of 4495 infants born to HIV-positive women were included in the present analysis. RESULTS: Neither maternal nor neonatal vitamin A supplementation significantly affected postnatal MTCT or overall mortality between baseline and 24 months. However, the timing of infant HIV infection modified the effect that supplementation had on mortality. Vitamin A supplementation had no effect in infants who were polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive [corrected] for HIV at baseline. In infants who were PCR negative at baseline and PCR positive at 6 weeks, neonatal supplementation reduced mortality by 28% (P=.01), but maternal supplementation had no effect. In infants who were PCR negative at 6 weeks, all 3 vitamin A regimens were associated with ~2-fold higher mortality (P< or =.05). CONCLUSIONS: Targeted vitamin A supplementation of HIV-positive children prolongs their survival. However, postpartum maternal and neonatal vitamin A supplementation may hasten progression to death in breast-fed children who are PCR negative at 6 weeks. These findings raise concern about universal maternal or neonatal vitamin A supplementation in HIV-endemic areas.